A research paper published earlier this year in Nature Communications has been awarded a Science of Risk prize by Lloyd’s at a ceremony last week [27 November].
The research, led by Dr Juliet Biggs of the University of Bristol, looked at satellite imagery data for 500 volcanoes worldwide, monitoring which volcanoes were deforming to establish statistical evidence of their eruption potential.
Further testing of this link could eventually develop into a forecast system for all volcanoes, including those that are remote and inaccessible.
Volcanic deformation can be caused by magma moving or pressuring underground. Magma rising towards the surface could be a sign of an imminent eruption. On the other hand, many other factors influence volcano deformation and, even if magma is rising, it may stop short, rather than erupting.
Dr Juliet Biggs and colleagues in the School of Earth Sciences: Dr Susanna Ebmeier, Professor Willy Aspinall, and Professor Stephen Sparks, collaborated with fellow academics Dr Matthew Pritchard from Cornell University, Dr Tamsin Mather from the University of Oxford and Dr Zhong Lu from Southern Methodist University. READ FULL PRESS RELEASE