Tag: Donald Trump

SMU economist: Is a recession inevitable? Time to name it?

Posted on

May 8, Michael Davis, economics professor at the Cox School of Business, SMU Dallas, for a commentary outlining what a Black Friday Freefall recession would look like should tariffs impact American retailers and consumers during the Holidays. Published in the Dallas Morning News under the heading Is a recession inevitable? Time to name it?  https://tinyurl.com/bdhvabry ​

 

Economists aren’t known for their whimsey, but we do like to make up names for the big economic recessions. There are the Reagan Recessions (1980 and again in 1982), the Dot-Com Downturn (2001), and the COVID Collapse (2020). And of course we have the 2007 recession, referred to in whispered, frightened tones as The Great Recession.

Since the odds of the next recession are now large and growing, shouldn’t we have a name ready to go? How about we call it The Black Friday Freefall?

It’s not just that BFF is a cool acronym, the name works if — as seems likely — the chaos induced by the tariff talk begins to bite during prime shopping season.

Continue reading “SMU economist: Is a recession inevitable? Time to name it?”

Trump vs Powell: An ugly fight we don’t need

Posted on

April 23, Michael Davis, economics professor at the Cox School of Business, SMU Dallas, for an op-ed criticizing the pointless feud between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Published in FoxNews Online under the heading Trump vs Powell: An ugly fight we don’t need: https://tinyurl.com/ysr5pwke ​

 

President Donald Trump wants to fire Jerome Powell, chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. No word yet on what Powell thinks about Trump’s job performance, but Powell says he doesn’t intend to quit before the end of his term next year. If Trump does try to fire him, he’ll see Trump in court.

It’s a mess. It’s like being a little kid in a big crazy family watching the grown-ups have a nasty, screaming fight in front of the neighbors. It’s embarrassing. But it’s more than that. This big crazy family needs the neighbors – which includes everyone in the world who participates in our financial system – more than ever.

Continue reading “Trump vs Powell: An ugly fight we don’t need”

Much of the world is terrified by another Trump presidency. Here’s why

Posted on

Oct. 11, Jeffrey Engel, founding director of the Center for Presidential History at SMU Dallas, for a commentary outlining the dangerous consequences of Donald Trump’s “ill-advised remarks, ill-timed threats and outright lies.” Published in the Los Angeles Times under the heading Much of the world is terrified by another Trump presidency. Here’s why: https://tinyurl.com/347h5a7r ​

Words matter. Especially when uttered by a president, and especially overseas. “Speak softly, and carry a big stick,” Theodore Roosevelt advised, though he never envisioned a successor would prove capable of obliterating cities half a world away in under half an hour. That nuclear stick is pretty big indeed, capable since 1945 of keeping our most virulent adversaries, including Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang, from their most reckless ambitions. It also keeps allies in line. What do Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany and South Korea have in common? Each is but a day away from joining the nuclear club. That day is when their leaders stop believing the president of the United States will come to their aid.

Continue reading “Much of the world is terrified by another Trump presidency. Here’s why”

A lesson for CBS: Live fact-checking is incompatible with good debate moderation

Posted on

Sept. 20, Ben Voth, a professor of rhetoric and director of debate at SMU Dallas, for a piece critical of the way some media outlets have been conducting presidential debates in recent years. Published in The Hill under the heading A lesson for CBS: Live fact-checking is incompatible with good debate moderation: https://tinyurl.com/mrxvrccw ​

 

Lindsey Davis and David Muir of ABC News moderated ABC’s Sept. 10 presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The debate, the second of the year, demonstrates the collapse of the traditional Commission on Presidential Debate forums that came into being in 1987. The commission originally planned to host a series of debates this fall that neither of the political parties would agree to for their campaigns.

The collapse of that process led to the current regimen of media network debate events now hosted by CNN and ABC. Most analysts recognize that Muir and Davis engaged in arguably partisan fact checking against the Trump campaign, raising inherent questions about how the next debate among vice presidential candidates Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) might be moderated by CBS News journalists Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan.

Continue reading “A lesson for CBS: Live fact-checking is incompatible with good debate moderation”

The unintended consequences of Trump’s ‘No Tax on Tips’ plan

Posted on

August 1, Michael Davis, economics professor at the Cox School of Business, SMU Dallas, for an op-ed analyzing the economic impact of ‘No Tax on Tips’ as proposed by former President Trump. Published in The Hill under the heading The unintended consequences of Trump’s ‘No Tax on Tips’ plan: https://tinyurl.com/mu9dtjm2 ​

No matter what you thought about President Biden’s fitness to serve another term, we’re past that. Now we can focus on what the frontrunner candidates for 2024 actually want to do.

This is, sadly, not always easy.

Policy questions are complicated. It’s hard for regular voters — people with, you know, jobs, bills and maybe kids — to figure out what will be best. And because the candidates want to win, they don’t want to tell people about tradeoffs of their policy pitches. They don’t want you to know that if the government does more of one thing, by necessity it must do less of something else.

So, let me suggest that you consider one small change in the tax code that may be up for grabs.

It’s nothing big and complex like abolishing the income tax in favor of a consumption tax (a terrific idea that will never happen). But it is something Donald Trump floated in detail in his RNC convention acceptance speech last month — and something Vice President Kamala Harris will have to address: “No Tax on Tips.”

Continue reading “The unintended consequences of Trump’s ‘No Tax on Tips’ plan”

A very MAGA convention: Trump, Vance, and the transformation of the GOP

Posted on

July 21, Matt Wilson, political science professor specializing in elections at SMU Dallas, for a piece analyzing the GOP’s philosophical drift from Reagan to MAGA. Published in the Orange County Register under the heading A very MAGA convention: Trump, Vance, and the transformation of the GOP: https://tinyurl.com/4yww5p6y ​

 

The last night of the Republican National Convention featured professional wrestling legend Hulk Hogan ripping his shirt off at the podium, a rap call-and-response with delegates led by Kid Rock, and an introduction of the former President of the United States by the President of the Ultimate Fighting Championship and Power Slap.  This capped a week that had prominently featured speeches by reality TV star Savannah Chrisley and model, rapper, and former exotic dancer Amber Rose.  Clearly, this is not your father’s GOP.

These icons of pop culture may have been the most visible departures from Republican conventions past, but they were not the most significant ones. More fundamentally, many of the issues and themes emphasized at this week’s event would have been shocking to a Republican audience as recently as ten years ago.

For decades, throughout the Reagan-Bush era of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, conservative and Republican identity in America rested on a “three-legged stool:” embrace of free market economics, robust projection of American military power to resist tyranny abroad, and support for traditional moral and cultural values.  Of these, only the last clearly remains a part of the GOP agenda, and even it was in some ways soft peddled at the recent convention.

Continue reading “A very MAGA convention: Trump, Vance, and the transformation of the GOP”

How would the nation’s founders view Trump’s conviction?

Posted on

May 31, Jeffrey Engel, David Gergen director of the Center for Presidential History at SMU Dallas, for a commentary examining how the judicial system designed by the founders held up to political pressures in a case against a former president — and the rule of law prevailed. Published in the Dallas Morning News under the heading How would the nation’s founders view Trump’s conviction? https://tinyurl.com/bhp2s2zw ​

 

Donald Trump has now become the first former president convicted of a felony, and the men who wrote the Constitution would be pleased to see the system they designed held up.

No doubt they would be saddened to learn that any high-ranking national leader fell afoul of the law. But they would not be surprised, because they designed a political system with human fallibility as its first principle, and thus with accountability in mind for even the most powerful among us.

When considering an office designed with the morally unimpeachable George Washington in mind, Benjamin Franklin observed at the Constitutional Convention that “the first man put at the helm may be a good one.” Yet “nobody knows what sort may come afterwards.”

Continue reading “How would the nation’s founders view Trump’s conviction?”

The Inscrutable Glamour of Melania Trump’s Mother

Posted on

 Jan. 11, Rhonda Garelick, distinguished professor of English and journalism at SMU Dallas, for a piece about the late Amalija Knavs, the mother of Melania Trump, and her quiet but certain influences on members of the First Family. Published in Garelick’s New York Times ‘Face Forward’ column under the heading:  The Inscrutable Glamour of Melania Trump’s Mother: http://tinyurl.com/4t87ucs2 

Throughout the Trump presidency, Amalija Knavs — mother to first lady Melania Trump — was something of a mysterious figure. Mrs. Knavs, who died earlier this week, rarely made public comments or gave interviews. Striking and perfectly coifed, Mrs. Knavs was a recurring but almost entirely silent presence during the Trump presidency, much like her daughter.

Mrs. Knavs and her husband Victor appeared often in the background of photos of the first family, accompanying them on trips to places like Camp David or Mar-a-Lago, and attending special events. And there’s something startling, even uncanny about photos containing both the Trumps and the Knavses: The two couples look like mirror images of each other. Mr. Trump and Mr. Knavs, just two years apart in age, have similar physiques and stature — even hair styles.

Continue reading “The Inscrutable Glamour of Melania Trump’s Mother”

Attacks on Section 230 reveal much more dangerous tech-policy strategy

Posted on

Dec. 14, Jared Schroeder, associate professor of Journalism specializing in Free Press/Free Speech at SMU Dallas, for an op-ed identifying the ulterior motives of lawmakers who want you to believe their goal is to scrap Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. Published in The Hill with the heading Attacks on Section 230 reveal much more dangerous tech-policy strategy: http://bit.ly/37hiV3g

​

Let’s say the quiet part out loud for once: Republican lawmakers don’t really care about Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (CDA). They also don’t believe social media platforms are intentionally limiting conservative voices. It’s all a ruse. A game. But the game is not without a point.

Lawmakers such as Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) aren’t making genuine policy arguments when they malign Section 230, which protects online forum providers from legal liability for how people use their platforms. They also know content moderation is not a First Amendment issue, despite what they say. President Trump last week threatened to veto the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) if it did not include a Section 230 repeal. None of these efforts are out of concern for policy change or democracy. They are instead using the quickly evolving misinformation playbook to inflame their bases. It’s working.

Continue reading “Attacks on Section 230 reveal much more dangerous tech-policy strategy”

Evangelicals shouldn’t be defending Trump in tiff over editorial

Posted on

Dec. 26, Stephanie Martin, assistant professor of communication and public affairs at SMU Dallas, for an op-ed chastising Evangelical Christian leaders who steadfastly side with Trump rather than consider reasoned criticisms from their own ranks (Christianity Today). Published in The Hill: http://bit.ly/37GX02W 

When “Christianity Today” issued its editorial last week calling for Donald Trump’s removal from the American presidency, I thought evangelicals — including prominent leaders — would sit up and take note.

What I did not expect was for them to rebuff the magazine’s call utterly.

Franklin Graham, son of the magazine’s founder the late Billy Graham, told The Washington Post that his father would have been “embarrassed” by the editorial. “For Christianity Today to side with the Democrat Party in a partisan attack on the President of the United States is unfathomable,” he added in a Facebook post. . . 

Continue reading “Evangelicals shouldn’t be defending Trump in tiff over editorial”