The war in Ukraine has upended Europe’s security landscape, forcing policymakers to confront difficult questions about military preparedness, strategic autonomy, and the future of transatlantic relations. At a recent Annette Strauss Event hosted by the Tower Center at SMU, Professor Marina Henke, a leading international relations expert from the Hertie School in Berlin, provided a critical analysis of the war’s impact and Europe’s strategic choices moving forward.
She explained that before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Europe was largely unprepared for a major security crisis. Despite the 2014 annexation of Crimea, many European nations prioritized economic stability, climate change, and pandemic response over military readiness. Germany relied on the principle of Wandel durch Handel (“change through trade”), maintaining deep economic ties with Russia while reducing defense spending.
This climate of complacency, Professor Henke argued, emboldened Putin. While the Kremlin framed NATO expansion as a security threat, Putin’s deeper fear was Ukraine’s democratic aspirations, which posed an ideological challenge to his authoritarian regime. His goal was not just military conquest but the erasure of Ukraine’s independent identity. Russia’s invasion shattered the illusion of stability. In response, Europe imposed unprecedented sanctions, increased military aid to Ukraine, and made historic policy shifts. Sweden and Finland’s decision to join NATO underscored the growing perception of Russia as an existential threat. Yet, despite these efforts, the war has reached a stalemate. European leaders remain uncertain about long-term US commitment, particularly given shifting political dynamics in Washington.
With questions looming about future transatlantic cooperation, Europe faces difficult strategic decisions. Professor Henke outlined three possible paths for Europe’s security future:
· Transatlantic Renewal – Prioritizing NATO and US engagement, this approach ensures continued military support but leaves Europe vulnerable to shifts in US foreign policy.
· European Strategic Autonomy – A more independent Europe would require significant investment in defense and deeper political cohesion among EU states.
· Nation-State Defense – Countries could opt to strengthen their individual security strategies, potentially weakening the EU’s collective approach and leading to fragmented alliances. This could result in more bilateral defense agreements, where nations seek security partnerships outside of the EU framework.
While there is broad consensus that Russia cannot be trusted to uphold a ceasefire, securing lasting peace will require strong guarantees and strategic foresight. The choices Europe makes now will shape its global role for decades to come.
Professor Marina Henke is a leading scholar on military coalitions, nuclear security, and European defense policy. She is a Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School in Berlin and Director of the Center for International Security. She also holds the Helmut Schmidt Distinguished Visiting Professorship at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Interestingly, her connection to Dallas dates back to the 1990s when she was an exchange student at Mansfield High School.
Key Takeaways
- Europe’s pre-war reliance on economic interdependence
and reduced defense spending left it unprepared for Russia’s invasion. - The war has triggered a major shift in European security policies and transatlantic relations. Europe faces a critical decision: continue relying on US support, pursue strategic autonomy, or prioritize national security on an individual basis.
- Professor Henke’s insights highlight the high stakes of these choices and their global implications.
This Annette Strauss Event offered invaluable perspectives on the challenges facing Europe. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, Professor Henke’s analysis serves as a crucial guide for navigating these uncertain times.
Watch the full discussion here https://youtu.be/nEHqiBWanNo?si=gpQvgN_x4Ijt_ucJ
Christian Pierre, a junior at SMU, serves as a Project Support Specialist at the Tower Center and is a member of the Tower Center Student Forum. Majoring in political science with double minors in international studies and business, Christian brings a global perspective informed by his upbringing in Accra, Ghana. He is also active in Alpha Kappa Psi, the African Student Association, and the Alexander Hamilton Society. Christian actively supports events at the Tower Center, contributing to community engagement on a wide range of global and domestic issues.