Can a U.S.-led coalition help to rebuild Gaza?

Jan. 26, Erik “EJ” Rorem, an SMU senior studying political science who works as a research assistant at the SMU Center for Presidential History, for a piece proposing the U.S. should facilitate a coaliiton that could rebuild Gaza. Published in the Dallas Morning News under the heading Can a U.S.-led coalition help to rebuild Gaza? http://tinyurl.com/4r4sban6

The end of the war in Gaza is unforeseeable, but some form of Israeli victory seems plausible. Suppose Israel eventually dismantles — if not totally destroys — Hamas’ administrative and military power over Gaza. What comes next?

Unfortunately, Israel may soon become the dog that caught the car. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated publicly that Israel has no intention of occupying or governing Gaza, raising the question, “Who will?”

Egypt and the United Arab Emirates may have a role to play in peacekeeping.

By EJ Rorem

The end of the war in Gaza is unforeseeable, but some form of Israeli victory seems plausible. Suppose Israel eventually dismantles — if not totally destroys — Hamas’ administrative and military power over Gaza. What comes next?

Unfortunately, Israel may soon become the dog that caught the car. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated publicly that Israel has no intention of occupying or governing Gaza, raising the question, “Who will?”

Israeli and Western experts have no idea, but they understand the urgency of finding out. A devastated Gaza without basic public services will fester into a new humanitarian horror story. Disease and starvation will claim even more innocent lives as conditions for a new terrorist group to succeed Hamas ripen.

Our divided Congress and the war-weary public are in no position to commit money or troops to stabilize Gaza, but the U.S. can still organize an international coalition capable of protecting both Palestinian civilians and Israeli security.

Egypt, a U.S. security partner and signatory to a 1978 peace deal with Israel, is a good candidate to provide the military personnel necessary to the coalition’s success. Peacekeeping in postwar Gaza is estimated to take at least 10,000 troops, ideally fluent in Arabic. The Egyptian army stands at around 325,000 strong, according to the CIA World Factbook. Egypt wants to support the Palestinians without accepting refugees; this coalition would allow it to do just that.

The United Arab Emirates normalized relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords in 2020, and has since invested heavily in Israeli infrastructure and businesses, drawing criticism from those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. The UAE could defray the cost of sorely needed infrastructure and housing projects in Gaza and less than $5 billion could establish a one-year monthly basic income program to revive the local economy. By providing funds for reconstruction efforts, the UAE can rehabilitate its image as a supporter of the Palestinian people.

Of course, the U.S. is central to this effort. American diplomatic support, oversight and coordination are necessary to make coalition rule over postwar Gaza effective and palatable to the Israeli government. Convincing Egypt to commit its forces will likely prove difficult, but the U.S. is in a unique position to negotiate the necessary incentives to secure the involvement of our Arab partners as well. Peace between Egypt and Israel was won in no small part due to diligent American diplomacy, demonstrating that cooperation under U.S. supervision and guidance is possible. Domestically, the Biden administration could assure the American public that the “Three Eagles” coalition’s efforts simultaneously bolster Israel’s security and improve quality of life for Palestinians in Gaza.

This is not without risk. Remnants of Hamas and its sympathizers could stoke violence against coalition forces. Heavy losses might cause the Egyptians to withdraw troops, which could spell the end of the mission. Iranian subterfuge could undermine the coalition through covert support for terrorist elements in Gaza or through disinformation, portraying the mission as an American imperialist plot or a Zionist conspiracy.

However, there are few viable alternatives. The Palestinian Authority is in no shape to administer a shattered Gaza and will require a transitional arrangement to stand a chance of doing so in the future. A United Nations-led effort would be subject to endless diplomatic and bureaucratic points of failure, assuming the Israeli government accepts their involvement in the first place.

Stabilizing and rebuilding Gaza requires nothing less than swift and decisive action immediately upon the war’s end. Important discussions about who will ultimately govern the Palestinian territories should be had while we work to improve the lives of those in Gaza, not before.

Egyptian manpower, Emirati funding and American leadership stand the best chance of preventing further humanitarian tragedy after the war. The hard diplomatic work to assemble them must start now.

Erik “EJ” Rorem is a senior at SMU studying political science and statistical science. He is a recipient of the Defense Department’s Boren Scholarship and studied the Persian language in Tajikistan through the State Department’s Critical Language Scholarship. He works as a research assistant at the Center for Presidential History at SMU.

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