The following is an excerpt from an SMU news release:
Trump’s victory is Clinton’s gain as GOP struggles to escape lost issues & set course for future
DALLAS (SMU) – SMU experts are available for interview on all things political in connection with Super Tuesday’s Democratic and Republican Party Primaries.
MATTHEW WILSON:
Looking at the election map, Wilson expects Super Tuesday to yield big wins for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. As far as Wilson’s concerned, that’s a double victory for Clinton.
“Hillary will have a big night tomorrow against Sanders in the southern states, but the bigger thing for her is what happens on the Republican side,” Wilson says. “She’ll have a big smile with every state that comes in for Donald Trump. The great irony of this race is she loses head-to-head polling against every Republican candidate except the one the Republican Party seems hell bent on nominating. She could back into the presidency, overcoming her general unpopularity and baggage, if the alternative is Trump.”
Wilson predicts far different emotions in the Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio camps, where pressure will ratchet up for the field to narrow.
“I think Cruz will win Texas and Trump will win everywhere else. In states outside Texas, it will be Rubio (who usually finishes second), not Cruz, and that will perpetuate the confusion about who is the Trump alternative,” Wilson says. “Cruz will say he’s won two states and Rubio hasn’t won anything, but Rubio will say he has broader support and that he finished ahead of Cruz in almost every state. That confusion plays to Trump’s advantage. The longer Trump avoids a one-on-one race, the easier it is for him to secure the nomination.”
Wilson is an SMU associate professor of Political Science who can discuss:
religion and politics
political psychology
voting behavior of religious voters
public opinion and politics