Senior Fellow Dr. Frederick Chang to be inducted to TAMEST

Tower Center Senior Fellow and Director of the Darwin Deason Institute for Cyber Security Dr. Frederick Chang will be inducted as a member to The Academy of Medicine, Engineering, and Science of Texas (TAMEST).

“I am humbled by the prestigious company I will be keeping as a TAMEST member,” Chang said in a release according to Dallas Innovates.

Chang is the third SMU faculty member to join TAMEST, out of a total of 270 members.

Read an article on Chang’s induction in Dallas Innovates here.

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Josh Rovner | “Donald Trump and the Future of Intelligence”

Tower Center Chair Joshua Rovner wrote an editorial looking at the long view of intelligence under Donald Trump’s administration and potential long-term consequences. He says the intelligence community’s challenge will be “how to avoid irrelevance without corrupting their organizational integrity.”

Trump has dismissed the CIA’s reports that Russia used cyberattacks to help Trump win the presidency, and he has opted to receive an intelligence briefing three times a week instead of the traditional daily updates.

“The controversies surrounding the Trump transition will pass,” Rovner wrote. “The intelligence community’s reaction, however, may have lasting consequences.”

Read his essay here.

Rovner was also quoted in Nextgov’s article by Joseph Marks, “Here’s Why Trump’s Intelligence Bashing Matters”.

“If the intelligence community is deeply demoralized and doesn’t feel interested in working with the White House or other policy counterparts, policymakers lose that check and they’re more inclined to trust their instincts,” he said.

Read this article here.

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“How the Boy Scouts, Texas and an oil giant shaped Rex Tillerson, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State”

President-elect Donald Trump picked Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson to be secretary of state in his administration. Senate confirmation hearings begin this week for Trump’s cabinet picks, including Tillerson.

Take a look at the Dallas Morning News’ article profiling Tillerson, featuring Tower Center Diplomat-in-Residence Ambassador Robert Jordan.

“Diplomats are putting their lives on the line every day in many dangerous parts of the world. I think they feel a special connection with the goals of the country,” Jordan said. “They’ll be looking to see if their leader shares that sense of patriotism and that sense of American interests.”

Read the article here.

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Jeffrey Engel | “The meaning of the ‘Four Freedoms’ speech 75 years later”

President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave what became to be known as the “Four Freedoms” speech 75 years ago today. In this speech he proposed four fundamental freedoms he felt everyone deserved: freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want and freedom from fear.

SMU Historian and Tower Center Senior Fellow Jeffrey Engel discusses the meanings of the speech on MPR News. Listen to his talk here.

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U.S.-Mexico business leaders to convince Trump of cross-border trade benefits

Tower Center Academic Director Jim Hollifield was interviewed in the Dallas Morning News to discuss the bi-national coalition of business leaders he said is forming to convince President-elect Donald Trump of the benefits of cross-border trade.

“You have powerful people from Mexico talking, drinking, having dinner with very powerful Texas people… They will push this agenda,” he said.

Read the article here.

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Josh Rovner | The Politics of Intelligence

Tower Chair Joshua Rovner was interviewed on KERA Think Dec. 19 to discuss Donald Trump, the CIA and the ongoing controversy surrounding Russian influence of the presidential election.

Trump has turned down the daily intelligence briefing, choosing instead to be briefed once a week.

He has also said the CIA’s conclusion that Russia influenced the presidential election is ridiculous. He said it was “just another excuse” Democrats are using to explain his victory in November.

“The baseline that Russia was involved is not controversial at all,” Rovner said. “In fact it’s consistent with decades of practice… the fact that Trump would just dismiss that out of hand was probably shocking to intelligence leaders.”

Listen to the interview here.

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Amb. Robert Jordan | “Tillerson fully understands American foreign policy priorities”

Tower Center Senior Fellow and Diplomat-in-Residence Ambassador Robert Jordan was interviewed on FOX about President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson.

Controversy has surrounded the nomination with some Republican senators, such as Marco Rubio and John McCain, questioning the pick due to Tillerson’s lack of diplomatic experience and his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Jordan supports the choice, saying Tillerson has extended experience handling complex negotiations as CEO of a Exxon.

“Rex knows how to run a complex organization,” Jordan said. “The state department is in great need of management overhaul, of streamlining, and I think he’ll be good at that.”

Watch the interview here.

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Josh Rovner | “Will Team Trump Politicize Intelligence”

Tower Chair Josh Rovner, author of Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligencewrote an editorial for War on the Rocks on President-elect Donald Trump and the CIA Dec. 15.

Trump told Fox News that he doesn’t need the daily presidential intelligence briefings presidents have been receiving for the past 40 years. “You know, I’m, like, a smart person,” he said. “I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years.”

Rovner argues that Trump’s plan to rely on his advisers, such as Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, to keep him in the loop could easily result in politicizing intelligence.

“One lesson of the Iraq War is that intelligence should be handled with care,” Rovner wrote.

Read the full article here.

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Student Blog — Alexander Stephenson | Trump vs. NAFTA

The United States is facing a political climate unlike anything it has seen in recent memory northamericadue to the recent election of American businessman Donald Trump as the next president. The Trump administration will usher in a new era of American politics and bring with it policies that Washington D.C. might find radical and hard to stomach. Throughout the election, controversy over free trade and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) rose to new heights.  America has recently endured one of the most tumultuous economic periods since the Great Depression. Citizens are passionate about maintaining growth and keeping American employment numbers climbing. President-elect Trump feels that the United States’s involvement in NAFTA is a ‘bad deal,’ because it is reducing the number of American jobs by making it possible for citizens to get their goods for less through Canadian and Mexican outlets. This paper will:  1) examine Trump’s controversial NAFTA policies and protectionist attitude; 2) inform readers on the institutional roots of American trade policy; 3) define the origin of NAFTA and why it was formed; 4) create an understanding of why free trade is so controversial; and 5) explain the possible effects to the U.S. economy and global market if NAFTA falls apart. First, the paper will discuss Trump’s current policy and how it compares to Ross Perot’s in 1992, to show similarities between the two.

President-elect Donald Trump has not gone into much detail about the specifics of his policies regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is surprising considering how much controversy he stirred up on this subject during his campaign. The fact sheet on Donald Trump’s presidential website contains only two lines discussing NAFTA which state, “NAFTA will be renegotiated to get a better deal for American workers. If our partners do not agree to a renegotiation, America will withdraw from the deal” (Donald J. Trump. 2016). For such a big and important statement one would assume that there would be some concrete evidence or reason for such a claim, but there is not. On the other hand, the possibility of withdrawing has stirred up a lot of controversy and debate about whether or not the agreement is beneficial for the United States. Trump’s views on NAFTA as a presidential candidate strikes comparisons to Dallas businessman and former presidential candidate Ross Perot. During the 1992 presidential election campaign, third party candidate Ross Perot opposed the idea of NAFTA and famously described it as a “giant sucking sound” in the 1992 Presidential Debate. Perot was worried that too many American businesses would send work south of the border for cheaper production. Today Donald Trump expresses these same concerns. To address Perot’s 1992 concerns Gary Hufbauer, a Senior Fellow at the Princeton Institute for International Economics, stated in a New York Times article that Ross Perot was wrong about NAFTA sucking away jobs. He then clarified that between 1994 and 2000, the United States annually created two million jobs (Hufbauer 2013). A classic example of mythical job loss is in the automotive industry. Those of the public who believe many American automotive companies are having cars totally made in Mexico are wrong. Final assembly may happen across the border in some cases, but an average car has about 30,000 different parts and skilled technicians here are needed to engineer many sections of a car such as engines and transmissions. These sections are then shipped, already assembled, to a plant for final assembly, some of which happens in Mexico. It is important to have a full-scale picture of the process to be able to critique it. It is equally important to comprehend the reasons America decided to join NAFTA to be able to critique the action.

In order to understand why the United States agreed to join NAFTA, it is necessary to be informed on the institutional roots of America’s trade policy. In chapter 24 of International Political Economy, authors Michael Bailey, Judith Goldstein, and Barry R. Weingast explain the United States’s transition from a protectionist state to one which embraces free trade. Before President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Democrats took control of Congress and the White House, U.S. trade policy was protectionist and partisan. Republicans were famous for raising tariffs to discourage foreign imports and/or exports. The highlight of this notion was in 1930 during the midst of the Great depression with the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (Bailey; Goldstein; Wengast. 2010).  The Act raised tariff rates to a record 48 percent and, according to many, prolonged the Great Depression and contributed to the breakout of World War II (Bilaam; Dillman. 2014). Shortly after the Democratic Party and FDR took control of Washington, they passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (RTAA) of 1934. Bailey, Goldstein and Weingast shed light on the RTAA and explain that it allowed Congress to “delegate authority to the executive branch to reduce tariffs through reciprocal trade agreements with other countries.” So not only did this legislation create an institutional change in U.S. trade policy, but it also engendered greater bipartisan support for free trade (Bailey; Goldstein; Weingast. 2010). With Donald Trump winning the presidency and Republicans maintaining control of Congress, it is possible that the United States will revert to being a protectionist nation. To some, this might seem like the country would be taking a step back in free trade, to others a necessary step forward to protecting American jobs. This question was likely discussed at the conception of NAFTA as well, and as history shows us, free trade won the argument.

In 1991, United States President George H.W. Bush, Mexican President Carlos Salinas, and Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney began negotiations for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA Now. 2016). The United States, Mexico and Canada eventually signed the treaty in 1992; however, it did not take effect until 1994 and remains controversial as to how much the members benefit (Balaam; Dillman. 2014). As a “state-of-the-art free trade agreement,” the treaty successfully opened markets between the regional powers allowing an environment beneficial to long-term investing to exist between the three countries. NAFTA has been eliminating tariff and nontariff barriers to trade and investment since it took effect. According to NAFTA’s website the agreement “sets the rules for international trade and investment” between the three member states. Highlights of the treaty address the following: market access for goods, protection for foreign investments, protection for intellectual property, easier access for business travelers, access for government procurement, rules of origin, side agreements, commitment to the environment, and commitment to labor cooperation. Specifics pertaining to these highlights can be found within the agreement’s eight sections and twenty-two chapters (NAFTA Now. 2016). Hearing these highlights might elicit questions that call into light the opposition view: why is free trade considered a ‘bad deal’ as stated by the President-elect.

Since free trade was established there have always been controversies which question the benefits of the liberal policy. It is, however, important to understand what the policy of free trade is before one can comprehend its controversies. The official definition of Free Trade in Introduction to International Political Economy is as follows: “It is one of the most popular policies advocated by economic liberals. In keeping with the laissez-faire notion that government intervention in the economy undermines efficiency and overall wealth, free trade removes protectionist measures, such as tariffs, that are designed to insulate domestic producers from international competition. It has been a major goal of most international trade institutions since 1947” (Balaam; Dillman. 2014). According to Cletus C. Coughlin in International Political Economy, most economists believe that free trade is the best policy; however, there are those of the general public who believe that free trade is not beneficial and is controversial (Coughlin. 2010). Coughlin clarifies that low income industrial workers are likely to support trade restrictions because it can improve the job environment and creates job protection. Scheve and Slaughter did a recent study explaining that the lower the skill levels of a worker, the stronger his or her support for new trade barriers. They were able to measure the worker’s skill levels by examining education levels and average occupational earnings. Coughlin explains that the public, or non-economists, struggles to understand the benefits of free trade from a broad-based gain aspect. NAFTA even recognizes the questions surrounding free trade and its own policies which is why it addresses these ‘myths vs. realities’ on its website. For example, one of the myths surrounding NAFTA is that the treaty has resulted in the loss of jobs for the three member states, when in reality total employment has grown by over 40 million jobs since 1993 (NAFTA Now. 2016). One can argue, however, that this does not tell the whole story or provide a breakdown on who is benefiting the most. One can also make the argument that advancements in technology have taken more jobs away, especially with regard to industrial workers. These facts might persuade one to be in favor of any action that claims it will bring jobs back to America, even if they do not fully understand the reparations that would cause in the American economy and the global trade market.

One of biggest questions surrounding NAFTA and the U.S. economy is whether or not it has helped create or diminish jobs in the U.S. In 2014, an article from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania examined whether or not NAFTA’s benefits outweigh the costs. Two of the main arguments proposed in the article about jobs and NAFTA were conducted by Robert Scott, chief economist at the left leaning Economic Policy Institute in Washington D.C., and by management professor, Mauro Guillen, from Wharton. Robert Scott argues that “By 2010, trade deficits with Mexico had eliminated 682,900 U.S. jobs, mostly (60.8 %) in manufacturing.” Mauro Guillen argues that what those like Robert Scott fail to recognize is “that without NAFTA, many jobs that were lost over this period would probably have gone to China or elsewhere.” Walter Kemmsies, chief economist at Moffatt Nichol, an international infrastructure consultancy, also weighs in and points out that roughly 40 percent of what the United States imports from Mexico is derived from U.S. sources (the Wharton School. 2014). It is also important to note that since its creation, NAFTA has helped create a rise in U.S. manufacturing output. According to NAFTA, between 1993 and 2008 the U.S. experienced a 62 percent rise in output compared to just 42 percent between 1980 and 1993 (NAFTA Now. 2012).

Now that Donald Trump will indeed be the next President of the United States, controversy and speculation about NAFTA is higher than ever. Many American businesses are now anxiously awaiting Trump’s decision on NAFTA. Whether the President-elect can negotiate a new deal with Mexico or kills the whole agreement is causing great concern. In the scenario that the U.S. leaves NAFTA, how does that decision affect the US economy and the global market? According to an article written by Tami Luhby in CNN Money, the United States “has not withdrawn from a trade agreement since 1866,” (Luhby. 2016) which ultimately implies that abandoning NAFTA leads to navigating in uncharted waters. As the world’s resident hegemon, the U.S. can cause international havoc by setting a precedent for reducing free trade and promoting protectionist policies. By advancing protectionist policies, Trump would be opening the door for China to become more dominant in the global trade market resulting in U.S. jobs ultimately flowing across the Pacific. Compounding the problem is that China, as a global economic power, is not just an economic concern for the U.S., but also a national security concern as well. If withdrawing from NAFTA becomes a precursor to not signing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), thereby reducing access to freer trade in Asia, the U.S. risks losing its spot as a regional power and creates a window of opportunity for China to play a more dominant role. Though there remains a lot of economic instability in China, it is still too risky for the United States and the rest of the global market for the U.S. to diminish the important role it plays in maintaining regional security and freedom of the seas.

President-elect Trump has a daunting task ahead of him: to change American free trade policies. The notion that NAFTA has taken jobs away from the United States is not entirely true; it does not show the full picture of the situation. Both Gary Hufbauer and Walter Kemmsies give evidence that shows NAFTA doesn’t have great effect on the loss of American jobs. Specifically, Hufbauer states that between 1994 and 2000, the United States annually created two million new jobs. Kemmsies articulates that roughly 40 percent of what the United States imports from Mexico is derived from US sources. The free trade policies laid out by the NAFTA treaty are multifaceted, and like other complex relationships it has points that can be argued in support and in opposition of the overall concept. President-elect Trump has not clearly explained what terms he would like NAFTA to renegotiate, or how serious he is regarding his threat to back out of the agreement. One thing is for sure — this will not be the only policy that the new president and his administration are going to try to re-work, and the American people have a responsibility to stay informed and hold President-elect Trump accountable.

alexstephensonAlexander Stephenson transferred to SMU in 2015 to major in political science. In 2012 he took a gap year to work in Opposition Research at the Republican National Committee (RNC) for the Mitt Romney Presidential Campaign. He has interned at the George W. Bush Institute and spent his sophomore and junior years of high school studying abroad in Portugal while his father was serving there as the United States Ambassador.

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Alan Bersin | The U.S. is too intertwined with Canada, Mexico to back out of NAFTA

Alan Bersin, assistant secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, visited the Texas-Mexico Center to talk about the changing nature of borders Dec. 6.

Alan Bersin talks borders at the Texas-Mexico Center Dec. 6.

Alan Bersin, assistant secretary for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), gave a talk Dec. 6 at the Texas-Mexico Center discussing the changing nature of borders in a globalized world.

Borders are no longer lines in the sand, Bersin said. They are flows of people and goods. They aren’t the first line of defense for a nation either. In a globalized community, “the border begins where airplanes take off.”

This means that in order to secure the homeland, the U.S. has to secure the flows of goods and people coming to the U.S. — once they reach the border it’s too late. On average, 97 to 98 percent of trade and travel is lawful. The challenge for DHS is to sort out the illicit 3 percent, to “find the needle in the proverbial haystack,” Bersin said.

He laid out three ways to find the needle:

  1. Search every piece of hay
  2. Use intelligence to locate the needle
  3. Make the haystack smaller

The DHS has elected to focus on option three: find the 97 to 98 percent of trade and travel that is legal and move it across the border quickly, making the haystack smaller. This way they can allocate resources to uncover the potentially harmful 3 percent. This is accomplished through programs like Global Entry, which allows people to give up information to the government, be classified a low-risk passenger, and quickly pass through border security.

DHS’s goal is to provide heightened security without disrupting the flow of people and goods.

Along with globalization and advancements in technology came a paradigm shift in information sharing. Nations used to hoard information in hopes of trading insights for diplomatic advantage, but in a globalized economy information sharing is essential. It allows governments to connect the dots.

Bersin transitioned to a discussion of the U.S.-Mexico relationship. He argued that NAFTA created a partnership in 1994, transforming the two countries that were once neighbors into roommates. “You can leave your neighbor, you can’t walk out on your roommate,” he said.

From the roommate perspective of NAFTA, Bersin is skeptical that the new administration led by President Donald Trump will follow through with his claimed intent to back out of the deal. He said that while there will most definitely be changes on issues like immigration, the U.S. is too intertwined with Canada and Mexico to dismantle the trade agreement.

Trump’s advisers will look at their options and find they don’t want to leave the deal. “I have great faith,” Bersin said.  Time will tell if Donald Trump defies expectations again.

Listen to Alan Bersin’s talk here:

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