What to expect from inauguration, first day in office, first 100 days of GOP control

• “A president’s first day in office is typically filled with welcomes from around the world and from his own administration. He might field congratulatory calls from global leaders, friends and potential foes alike, each eager to start a new relationship with the new commander in chief out on the best footing possible. So too leaders from his own government, and from Congress, who will take the time to formally address ‘Mr. President’ so he knows what it sounds like coming from their voice.  It is a day for ceremony and setting a tone, and for signing pre-determined executive orders rescinding his predecessor’s or fulfilling campaign promises, but not typically for big decisions.”

On how the national situation Trump inherits compares to that of past presidents…

• “Historians will likely note that a man elected president in 2016 on the basis of lamenting America’s fate inherited one of the strongest positions of any American leader in history. Barack Obama took over during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and with two major wars to oversee. He hands his successor a nation near full employment, a record of economic growth, and no large-scale military conflicts. Trump will be hard pressed to improve on Obama’s overall record, but then again, it is clear that Trump’s supporters were never impressed by the real story of Obama’s presidency anyway.”

On what likely will, and wont, be accomplished in Trump’s first 100 days…

• “I expect the new administration, and more importantly the new GOP congress, will in its first 100 days repeal Obamacare, but not offer a real substitute; repeal environmental and worker’s regulations; restrict funding for planned parenthood; and walk back as many of the previous administration’s executive orders as they can, in particular those covering social issues and the LGBTQ community.  It will not be 100 days of advance. In the promise of making American great again, it will be 100 days of retreat.”

Engel is director of the SMU Center for Presidential History

Books published:

• When Life Strikes the White House: Death, Scandal, Sickness and Personal Tragedies in the Oval Office, Jeffrey A. Engel and Thomas J. Knock, eds. New York: Oxford University Press, 2017
• Into the Desert: Reflections on the Gulf War, Jeffrey A. Engel, ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012
• Rethinking Leadership and “Whole of Government” National Security Reform, with Joseph R. Cerami. Carlisle, Pennsylvania: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2010

• “First of all, they’re looking for a friendly Supreme Court appointment. That’s probably the single most important thing, a justice who will be supportive to pro-life and religious issues. Second, they will be looking for Trump to undo what they see as some religiously unfriendly mandates of federal agencies under Barack Obama, particularly things like abortion and contraception coverage in Obamacare and a lot of the gay and transgender rights issues that Obama advanced in federal regulation. These are issues they see as religious freedom and conscientious objection protections for people who don’t want to embrace the Obama administration’s position on gay and lesbian issues or doctors who don’t want to perform abortions or things like that.”

On whether Pence, bathroom laws and the Supreme Court can reignite the culture war…

• “The battlefield has shifted. The culture wars will never be over. It is inherent in human nature to fight about cultural issues because these are things we really care about. Culture wars have resurfaced with a vengeance in Europe surrounding issues of identity and a range of questions. Here in the United States, the real frontier for the culture war now is individuals’ and institutions’ rights to do their own thing. That is, to abide by their own values in their own lives or own practices. That is what evangelicals are asking for, and it’s really shifted from 20 or 30 years ago when they were seeking to use the power of the state to reinforce what they hoped would be their dominant understanding of issues pertaining to homosexuality. With the exception of bathroom laws, that’s not what they’re seeking anymore. What they’re seeking now is to be left alone in their own institutions and personal lives to live according to their values. I suspect it will again come down to whether individual establishments have the right to have whatever bathroom policies they want and whether individual schools and churches can say, ‘We don’t care,’ or whether they will be able to say, ‘Use the restroom that corresponds to your apparatus.’ That’s going to be how these things are fought around the country.”

On the most intriguing looming struggle of Trump’s first 100 days…

• “I think the confirmation hearings for Trump’s cabinet picks will be very interesting, some more than others. A lot are very controversial. He appointed a lot of red meat conservatives to a lot of positions – people with beliefs that go in the face of liberals on a variety of issues.
• “For secretary of education, he appointed an enthusiastic school choice advocate. We know Democrats hate the idea of school choice because teacher unions hate school choice, so that will be a confrontational battle. We know Jeff Sessions is unapologetically conservative over a range of issues like voter ID and illegal immigration, and that will be an issue that he’s charged with.
• “The GOP, if it wants, can confirm these nominations pretty quick, because Democrats got rid of the filibuster. The only way it drags out is if you see GOP defections for any of these because Democrats can’t fight this on their own. The people to watch are senators like John McCain, Susan Collins, Linsey Graham and the handful of moderate republicans to see if they are significantly troubled by any of the Trump cabinet nominations. If they are, they can team with Democrats to stop them, but that’s what it will take.”

Wilson is an SMU associate professor of Political Science

Books published:

• Politics and Religion in the United States. With Michael Corbett and Julia Corbett-Hemeyer.  Routledge Press, 2013.
• Understanding American Politics. With Stephen Brooks and Douglas L. Koopman.  University of Toronto Press, 2013.
• From Pews to Polling Places: Faith and Politics in the American Religious Mosaic.  Georgetown University Press, 2007.  Edited volume including authored chapter.